Blockware Solutions — a blockchain infrastructure and Bitcoin mining firm — has released a report analyzing the pace of Bitcoin’s adoption, and what to expect going forwards. The firm’s analysis calls for a minimum of 1 billion Bitcoin users, with a predicted 10% of the world using the network by 2030.
The Math of Bitcoin’s Adoption Curve
According to a press release from the company on Thursday, the report applies the “S-curve” to plot Bitcoin’s future adoption — a theory that breaks the adoption path of new technologies into five temporal stages.
These stages are defined by the order of adoption among different types of people. These groups, in order, are the Innovators, Early Adopters, Early Majority, Late Majority, and Laggards. Most growth theoretically takes place during the Early Majority and Late Majority stages.
A Wells Fargo report from February posited that cryptocurrency adoption is following a similar pattern. It claimed that crypto’s current adoption stage mimics that of the internet in the 1990s, stating that it is approaching “hyper-adoption.”
Very Early, Very Bullish
Perhaps more bullishly, Blockware’s report predicts that Bitcoin will be adopted faster than such past technologies. The team expects 10% of the globe to be onboard the network within just 8 years.
Blockware’s Lead Insights Analyst Will Clemente broke down his team’s predictions in an interview with Anthony Pompliano on Thursday.
“Where we think Bitcoin adoption is, I think we’re getting ready to hit that main S-curve of adoption,” he said. Furthermore, as the network is growing “on the rails of the internet” and comes with baked-in monetary incentives, its “network effects” are expected to be exceptional.
The report also argues that user adoption directly influences Bitcoin’s price in a positive way. At the moment, the number of active users of the Bitcoin network is estimated to be about 0.36% of the global population.
Blockware analyst Mitch Askew said he “expected global adoption to be higher,” but finds the lower than expected figure “incredibly bullish.
“You’ve got this network effect that continues chugging along and growing exponentially… and then at some point you’re gonna have some type of event that releases that valve up,” said Clemente.
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