In the last few months we've seen a lot of Health Care Reform rules and regulations being introduced by the Health and Human Services Department. Every time that happens, the media gets hold of it and all kinds of articles are written in the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, and the TV network news programs talk about it. All the analysts start talking about the pros and cons, and what it means to businesses and individuals.
The problem with this is, many times one writer looked at the regulation, and wrote a piece about it. Then other writers start using pieces from that first article and rewriting parts to fit their article. By the time the information gets widely distributed, the actual regulations and rules get twisted and distorted, and what actually shows up in the media sometimes just doesn't truly represent the reality of what the regulations say.
There's a lot of misunderstanding about what is going on with ObamaCare, and one of the things that I've noticed in discussions with clients, is that there's an underlying set of myths that people have picked up about health care reform that just aren't true. But because of all they've heard in the media, people believe these myths are actually true.
Today we're going to talk about three myths I hear most commonly. Not everybody believes these myths, but enough do, and others are unsure what to believe, so it warrants dispelling these myths now.
The first one is that health care reform only affects uninsured people. The second one is that Medicare benefits and the Medicare program isn't going to be affected by health care reform. And then the last one is that health care reform is going to reduce the costs of healthcare.
Health Care Reform Only Affects Uninsured
Let's look at the first myth about health care reform only affecting uninsured people. In a lot of the discussions I have with clients, there are several expressions they use: “I already have coverage, so I won't be affected by ObamaCare,” or “I'll just keep my grandfathered health insurance plan,” and the last one – and this one I can give them a little bit of leeway, because part of what they're saying is true — is “I have group health insurance, so I won't be affected by health care reform.”
Well, the reality is that health care reform is actually going to affect everybody. Starting in 2014, we're going to have a whole new set of health plans, and those plans have very rich benefits with lots of extra features that the existing plans today don't offer. So these new plans are going to be higher cost.
Health Care Reform's Effect On People With Health Insurance
People that currently have health insurance are going to be transitioned into these new plans sometime in 2014. So the insured will be directly affected by this because the health plans they have today are going away, and they will be mapped into a new ObamaCare plan in 2014.
Health Care Reform Effect On The Uninsured
The uninsured have an additional issue in that if they don't get health insurance in 2014, they face a mandate penalty. Some of the healthy uninsured are going to look at that penalty and say, “Well, the penalty is 1% of my adjusted gross income; I make $50,000, so I'll pay a $500 penalty or $1,000 for health insurance. In that case I'll just take the penalty.” But either way, they will be directly affected by health care reform. Through the mandate it affects the insured as well as the uninsured.
Health Care Reform Effect On People With Grandfathered Health Plans
People that have grandfathered health insurance plans are not going to be directly affected by health care reform. But because of the life cycle of their grandfathered health plan, it's going to make those plans more costly as they discover that there are plans available now that they can easily transfer to that have a richer set of benefits that would be more beneficial for any chronic health issues they may have.
For people who stay in those grandfathered plans, the pool of subscribers in the plan are going to start to shrink, and as that happens, the cost of those grandfathered health insurance plans will increase even faster than they are now. Therefore, people in grandfathered health plans will also be impacted by ObamaCare.
Health Care Reform Effect On People With Group Health Insurance
The last one, the small group marketplace, is going to be the most notably affected by health care reform. Even though the health care reform regulations predominantly affect large and medium-sized companies, and companies that have 50 or more employees, smaller companies will also be affected, even though they're exempt from ObamaCare itself.
What many surveys and polls are starting to show is that some of the businesses that have 10 or fewer employees are going to look seriously at their option to drop health insurance coverage altogether, and no longer have it as an expense of the company. Instead, they will have their employees get health insurance through the health insurance exchanges.
In fact, some of the carriers are now saying they anticipate that up to 50% of small groups with 10 or fewer employees are going to drop their health insurance plan sometime between 2014 and 2016. That will have a very large effect on all people who have group health insurance, especially if they're in one of those small companies that drop health insurance coverage.
It's not just uninsured that are going to be affected by health care reform, everybody is going to be impacted.
Health Care Reform Will Not Affect Medicare
The next myth was that health care reform would not affect Medicare. This one is kind of funny because right from the very get-go, the most notable cuts were specifically targeting the Medicare program. When you look at Medicare's portion of the overall federal, you can see that in 1970, Medicare was 4% of the U.S. federal budget, and by 2011, it had grown to 16% of the federal budget.
If we look at it over the last 10 years, from 2002 to 2012, Medicare is the fastest growing part of the major entitlement programs in the federal government, and it's grown by almost 70% during that period of time.
Because of how large Medicare is and how fast it's growing, it's one of the key programs that ObamaCare is trying to get a handle on, so it doesn't bankrupts the U.S. Medicare is going to be impacted, and in fact the initial cuts to Medicare have already been set at about $716 billion.
Medicare Advantage Cuts And The Effects
Of that $716 billion cut, the Medicare Advantage program gets cut the most, and will see the bulk of the effects. What that's going to do is increase the premiums people pay for their Medicare Advantage plans, and reduce the benefits of those plans.
Increased Medicare Advantage Costs
Right now, many people choose Medicare Advantage plans because they have zero premium. When given a choice on Medicare plans, they view it as an easy choice because it's a free program for them, “Sure, I get Medicare benefits, I don't pay anything for it; why not.” Now they're going to see Medicare premiums start to climb, and go from zero to $70, $80, $90, $100. We've already seen that with some of the Blue Cross Medicare Advantage plans this year. It's going to get worse as we go forward in the future.
Reduced Medicare Advantage Benefits
In order to minimize the premium increases, what many Medicare Advantage plans will do is increase the copayments, increase the deductibles, and change the co-insurance rates. In order to keep the premiums down, they'll just push more of the costs onto the Medicare Advantage recipients. Increased premiums and reduced benefits are what we're going to see coming in Medicare Advantage plan.
Fewer Medicare Physicians
And then if that wasn't bad enough, as Medicare doctors begin receiving lower and lower reimbursements for Medicare Advantage people, they're going to stop taking new Medicare Advantage recipients. We're going to see the pool of doctors to support people in Medicare starting to shrink as well, unless changes are made over the course of the next five years. So Medicare is going to be affected, and it's going to be affected dramatically by health care reform. Everybody's kind of on pins and needles, waiting to see what's going to happen there.
Health Care Reform Will Reduce Healthcare Costs
The last one, and probably the biggest myth about health care reform, is everybody thinking that ObamaCare will reduce healthcare costs. That's completely hogwash. Early on in the process, when they were trying to come up with the rules and regulations, the emphasis and one of the goals for reform was to reduce healthcare costs.
But somewhere along the line, the goal actually shifted from cost reduction to regulation of the health insurance industry. Once they made that transition, they pushed cost reductions to the back burner. There are some small cost reduction components in ObamaCare, but the real emphasis is on regulating health insurance. The new plans, for example, have much richer benefits than many plans today: richer benefits means richer prices.
Health Care Reform Subsidies: Will They Make Plans Affordable?
A lot of people hope, “The subsidies are going to make health insurance plans more affordable, won't they?” Yes, in some cases the subsidies will help to make the plans affordable for people. But if you make $1 too much, the affordable plans are suddenly going to become very expensive and can cost thousands of dollars more over the course of a year. Will a subsidy make it affordable or not affordable is really subject to debate at this point in time. We're going to have to actually see what the rates look like for these plans.
New Health Care Reform Taxes Passed On To Consumers
Then there's a whole ton of new health care reform taxes that have been added into the system to help pay for ObamaCare. That means everybody who has a health insurance plan, whether it's in a large group, a small group, or just as an individual, is going to be taxed in order to pay for the cost of reform. Health care reform adds various taxes on health care that insurance companies will have to collect and pay, but they're just going to pass it right through to us, the consumer.
Mandate Won't Reduce Uninsured Very Much
During the initial years of health care reform, the mandate is actually pretty weak. The mandate says that everyone must get health insurance or pay a penalty (a tax). What that's going to do is make healthy people just sit on the sidelines and wait for the mandate to get to the point where it finally forces them to buy health insurance. People with chronic health conditions that couldn't get health insurance previously, are all going to jump into healthcare at the beginning of 2014.
At the end of that year, the cost for the plans is going to go up in 2015. I can guarantee that that's going to happen, because the young healthy people are not going to be motivated to get into the plans. They won't see the benefit of joining an expensive plan, whereas the chronically ill people are going to get into the plans and drive the costs up.
Health Care Reform's Purpose Is Just A Matter Of Semantics
The last portion of this is, one of the key things – and it's funny, I saw it for the first two years, 2010, and '11 – one of the key things that was listed in the documentation from the Obama administration was: Health Care Reform would help reduce the cost that we would see in the future if we do nothing today. That was emphasized over and over again. That was how they presented health care cost reduction, that it would reduce the future costs. Not today, but it would reduce what we would pay in the future if we did nothing about it now.
Well, that's great, 10 years from now we're going to pay less than we might have paid. And we all know how accurate future projections usually are. In the meantime, we're all paying more today, and we're going to pay even more in 2014 and more in 2015 and 2016. People are going to be pretty upset about that.
Those three myths, that health care reform is only going to affect the uninsured, that it won't affect Medicare beneficiaries, and that ObamaCare is going to reduce healthcare costs, are just that. They are myths. There's nothing to them.
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