The more we learn about advancements in artificial intelligence, the closer we will be to a world where humans don't have to do much of anything. One of the most discussed effects of AI is job losses, which effectively means automation and mass unemployment.
Some experts predict that almost half of the work done by humans will be replaced in the next 25 years and AI could end up replacing as many as 80% of jobs. These estimates are frightening but there is no way around it—the future may look bleak for a lot of people if this happens, especially those whose job market value has been hit hardest so far.
In the last decade, we have seen large strides in AI research, thanks to the booming tech industry and advancements in machine learning. There has been a lot of discussion around what impact this technology will have on society as a whole—especially in regards to employment.
AI is already used by many businesses and industries as part of their day-to-day operations. We have also seen its impact in the devices market with the popularity of Snapchat filters, prompting many tech giant to now include 12 Megapixel cameras with AI abelites in their new handsets.
For example, advancements in machine vision allow driverless cars to safely navigate city streets, which means that transportation jobs might not be needed anytime soon. We are already starting to feel the impact of automated systems on the economy with self-checkout machines like Amazon Go threatening retail jobs and Amazon's Mechanical Turk replacing agents.
While a lot of jobs are on the verge of automation, their replacement isn't an easy task. Having said that, in the next couple of years, there will be breakthroughs in AI that will significantly advance its performance. Once AI can go from performing simple tasks to complex ones that require human-like judgement and thought, we will start seeing a shift in the workplace.
According to a prediction by Oxford Economics, 40% of the world's jobs will be automated by the year 2055. That is a staggering number—the impact of AI technology on employment will be exponential. The report even predicts that AI could automate half of all jobs worldwide by 2050 and completely eliminate 15% or more of them.
The question is, how much time do we have before we reach this point? Since scientists are continuously researching ways to increase performance and development, there is no way to know exactly how fast they will advance AI. However, there are things that can help us make an educated guess.
Training AI is a very time consuming process. Even trivial tasks can take thousands or millions of samples. Scientists also need to make sure that the system has enough data and sees it from different angles—otherwise, it can't be taught correctly. Improvements in algorithmic performance are directly related to how much data we are able to collect but so far, progress has been slow.
What's worse, scientists need real-life data and not synthetic data sets which are usually easier to manage. That is the reason why so many AI systems are tailored for specific tasks, even though they are able to learn more things in theory.
That's why it takes years for AI systems to be properly trained and tested. For example, take Deep learning which is considered one of the most effective tools when it comes to accurate classification. It was first used in 2012 and only now, we are starting to see its full potential since a lot of work has been done since then.
We are still very far from using AI for complex tasks that require human-like intelligence. The amount of time it will take for us to get there is a big unknown but chances are that we will have AI performing complicated tasks much sooner than we think—as long as the algorithms keep improving and scientists have access to more data sets.
The way we will reach this level of development is through the use of deep learning and neural networks. These are fundamental to a lot of AI systems and will keep being used to advance existing systems and train new ones, which means more data that can be collected.
It's also important to mention that there are some in the scientific community who are sceptical when it comes to timelines on AI advancements. Some claim that, since we already know what advances we need to make, it may take decades or even centuries until we see them.
The truth is, most experts agree that improvements can happen much faster than expected. It's just a matter of time until the technology gets to the point where it is able to perform tasks that require human-like thinking.
Once we reach this level, what will happen next? There is no way to say for sure but we can clearly see future trends as far as how people will interact and communicate with machines. For example, imagine that an AI system becomes conscious—it would start being able to multitask, think like a human and become self-aware. This would be a step forward for AI development and something that the industry needs in order to keep pushing it forward.
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