Maurício Mendes Dutra

The great sources of wealth in the twenty-first century may not lie in artificial intelligence laboratories or global financial centres, but beneath the soil of nations capable of recognising the strategic value of their natural resources.

There is a phrase often attributed to Stefan Zweig that has echoed through generations, describing Brazil as the “country of the future”. For decades, that expression was repeated with a mixture of hope and scepticism. Yet, as I observe the profound transformations reshaping the global economy, I increasingly feel that we may be approaching a moment when the future is finally beginning to catch up with Brazil.

When I previously wrote about the transition from soybeans to copper as a symbol of a new phase in the economic partnership between Brazil and China, my objective was to highlight a shift that was already becoming visible in international trade flows. However, the more I follow developments across global markets, the more convinced I become that copper is only the beginning of a much larger transformation.

We are entering the age of critical minerals.

The expansion of electric vehicles, renewable energy, artificial intelligence and large-scale data centres is generating unprecedented demand for resources such as copper, lithium, nickel, graphite and rare earth elements. According to estimates from the International Energy Agency, global demand for critical minerals is expected to increase substantially over the coming decades, driven by the energy transition and the digitalisation of the global economy.

In practical terms, this means the world will require significantly more mineral resources to sustain its next cycle of growth.

What strikes me most is that the discussion is no longer centred solely on the existence of these reserves. In international negotiations, the growing concern is supply security. Governments, corporations and investors increasingly want to know which countries will be capable of providing these resources reliably, sustainably and at the scale required by future demand.

That is why critical minerals are no longer viewed merely as commodities.

They have become strategic assets.

In this context, few countries are as well positioned as Brazil.

In addition to holding significant reserves of copper, nickel, manganese, graphite, lithium and niobium, Brazil possesses characteristics that are becoming increasingly valuable in global markets: abundant natural resources, substantial water availability and one of the cleanest energy matrices among the world’s major economies.

Yet, in my experience following international commodity markets and cross-border trade operations, the real opportunity does not lie solely in exporting these resources.

History shows that the nations that achieve lasting prosperity are not necessarily those with the largest reserves, but those capable of transforming natural resources into economic development, technological progress and long-term competitiveness.

This was precisely the path followed by Brazilian agriculture. The success of soybeans was not built solely on fertile land. It was the result of investment, innovation, logistics, financing and integration with global markets.

I see a similar opportunity emerging in critical minerals.

The difference is that we are now looking at a market that will be essential to industries likely to define the coming decades: electric mobility, energy storage, artificial intelligence, digital infrastructure and energy security.

Within this framework, the partnership between Brazil and China will continue to play a significant role. If soybeans represented the first major chapter of this relationship and copper symbolises its evolution, critical minerals may well define its next stage.

As I observe movements across global markets, I cannot help but feel that we are witnessing a structural transformation comparable to the one that turned oil into a strategic resource during the twentieth century.

The difference is that this time Brazil enters the transformation from a position of strength.

The world is moving into a new industrial era, and critical minerals will form one of its foundations.

The question is not whether demand for these resources will continue to grow.

The question is whether we will have the strategic vision required to transform this natural advantage into long-term economic prosperity.

Perhaps, for the first time in many decades, the future that Stefan Zweig once spoke of is no longer merely a promise.

Perhaps it is already beginning.