It might be surprising for you, as a beginner in the football analytics field, to know that the incredible winning streak of Ole Gunnar at ManU and the subsequent fall was already predicted by the analysts.
When it comes to betting, the odds and probabilities are already there. Bettors don’t need convincing that numbers do have a crucial role in determining who would win or how many goals will be scored in the game or if the penalty would be favorable to one team or the other. The beautiful game of football lends itself to the art of analysis using mathematics however, just because data is available in abundance doesn’t mean that it would be always used correctly. To help you understand how free football betting tips is used and to usher you into the journey as a beginner, we have listed out the top 10 analytics ahead.
Top best football analytics for beginners
These commandments will help you appreciate the context required to analyze teams and players, what numbers to use as a guide and to ask the right questions.
Save percentage should not be used to evaluate a goalkeeper’s ability –How skilled is the striker, whether the shot is from inside the 6yard box or outside, what is the angle of the shot and many such factors determine the goalkeeper’s ability to stop a ball?
Do not use forums to collect data –No matter how old you are to the forum or how believable the data seems to you, it is stupid to collect data from any forum. Always rely on trusted sources and websites to gather all the data you need. Analytics is a tricky business because one single variation in your data point can be disastrous for the model you are working on.
Granular Statistics needs to be ignored –You might be a beginner into analytics and stuff but your domain knowledge about the game needs to be on point. Using lone statistics and random logics into the model will always land you in trouble at the end when you are expecting to get usable numbers to bet.
Relying on xG to calculate odds for players instead of teams –Expected goals should be used to calculate your odds for players rather than the teams. While the scores are attributed to the team, the actual goal is scored by the forward players hence, this metric is more about getting opportunities rather than creating chances.
Make post-shot xG your friend for the right reasons –Most amateurs believe that anything xG is always related to scoring goals. The misnomer however makes it hard to digest. Post-shot xG metric should be used for goalkeepers rather than strikers.
Be careful with using PPDA –The pass per defensive action is a tricky metric. You cannot use it across the whole field. The idea is that there is not much ‘defensive action’ in the deep 40% of the pitch for the defensive side hence, only the action in the remaining 60% pitch is counted.
Sequences and Possessions need to be combined with another metric –These are only useful when combined with another set of metrics and not individually. Moreover, only a sequence of 10+ passes is useful and tangible.
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