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Recent Posts 4 posts
Economy
Prospects for Oil Prices: Supply Shocks vs. “Demand Destruction”
The Houthis expand control of the Red Sea side of Yemen, threatening remaining Saudi oil exports — and yet prices fall. Source: Bloomberg. O…
Economy
Core CPI Upside Surprise and FOMC Odds
Core CPI m/m came in at +0.3% vs. +0.2% consensus. Figure 1: Core CPI month-on-month inflation (blue), Bloomberg consensus (light blue squar…
Economy
So Much for the Manufacturing Employment Renaissance
Preliminary benchmark revision based on QCEW data, released today: Figure 1: Change in manufacturing employment since 2025M01 from BLS (blue…
Economy
The Petroleum and Petroleum Products Balance
From NIPA accounts: Figure 1: Petroleum and petroleum product exports (blue), imports (red), both in bn.$, SAAR. Source: BEA. For the balanc…
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