Emerging Trends in Vaccines Procurement: What to Expect

The vaccines category is anticipated to grow at a CAGR of 4.7% from 2023 to 2030. They can be classified mainly into six types – Live-attenuated, inactivated, sub-unit, toxoid, viral vector, and messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccines. Among these, the mRNA sector held the largest share of 39% in 2022. The growth of the category is mainly attributed to the rising requirement for effective immunization, increasing R&D investments coupled with technological advancements, and a wider accessibility of the product especially in lower-income countries. In recent times, the emergence of new COVID variants and other infectious diseases such as “Disease X”, Nipah virus, Ebola, Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever, Rift Valley Fever (RVF), etc. are further boosting the product demand.

The Developing Country Vaccine Manufacturers (DCVMs) play a crucial role in supplying more than 50% of the vaccines utilized in immunization programs of developing nations. The DCVM is a voluntary alliance comprised of 40 vaccine manufacturers from 15 developing nations. For instance, India, since 2021, has shown significant growth in the field of vaccine manufacturing. India is among one of the largest producers of vaccines, meeting around 60 – 65% of the global demand in 2022. Currently, one-third of India’s production is consumed locally, and the other two-thirds are exported. Globally, some of the emerging technologies include the use of nanotechnology, vaccine antigen technology such as “Digitally Immune Optimised Synthetic Vaccine”, recombinant DNA platforms, EABR and mRNA technology.

The global vaccines category is moderately consolidated. The development of vaccines is extremely risky and capital-intensive. In industrialized or developed nations, a small number of powerful vaccine providers control the majority of the vaccination market. Vaccine research and development has largely been restricted to a few vaccine-producing countries. However, with increasing opportunities for vaccines in pharmacies, the industry is likely to become more fragmented. The current fragmentation of vaccine administration is indicative of the ongoing competition that exists between providers and pharmacies. This competition is a reflection of the broader disruption being experienced throughout the healthcare industry.

Order your copy of the Vaccines Procurement Intelligence Report, 2023 – 2030, published by Grand View Research, to get more details regarding day one, quick wins, portfolio analysis, key negotiation strategies of key suppliers, and low-cost/best-cost sourcing analysis

Cost modelling is an effective method that may be used to simulate bottlenecks, improve production efficiency, and get a deeper understanding of the processes involved in making vaccines. From research to GMP manufacturing stages, different types of direct and indirect costs are involved in the process. The main key cost components associated with manufacturing are capital, labor, materials, consumables, and other costs. Capital costs can include components such as equipment, capital estimates (such as installation, pipework, HVAC, power, and building), and validation. Capital costs are the largest component in the process accounting for between 41 – 49% of the total cost structure. Consumables can include filters, membranes, single-use components, etc. Other costs can include R&D, marketing and licensing, packaging, distribution, and engineering, which can vary based on the specifications and technology of the individual product.

According to Biopharm Services’ study, it was also found that the cost per dose is higher for stainless steel equipment. This is mainly attributed to factors such as higher capital and labor contribution compared to consumables and materials. For instance, in the case of inactivated vaccines, a facility with a lower utilization rate, using stainless steel processes, the capital charge and labor accounted for 48% and 14% respectively. Whereas, under the same conditions, in a facility using single-use processes, the capital and labor costs accounted for 41% and 9% respectively. In March 2023, the prices for Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine were around USD 130 per dose. In September 2023, most of the manufacturers priced their COVID-19 vaccine shots between USD 120 – 130 per dose.

In 2023, the EU region was the leader in the vaccine industry for both quantities produced and R&D intensity. A total of 27 manufacturing sites are spread across 11 countries in the EU region. In terms quantity of vaccines exported, the EU (taken as a whole) region, India, and the U.S. accounted for 65 – 75% of the total share between 2021 – 2022. In November 2023, India exported 64,610 shipments followed by France and Germany.

Given the importance of safety with biologics, the category is highly regulated. In the U.S., it is regulated by the FDA’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research (CBER). The European Medicines Agency (EMA) is the main controlling body in the EU region. Hence, while procuring the product, it is essential to check whether a prior application for permission has been made by the category manufacturers to develop and sell the product. Every producer must adhere to GMP guidelines and be subject to domestic and international regulatory control. Other important considerations include checking if the manufacturing and testing are carried out in a sterile environment under strict quality control procedures. A few examples of testing are – general safety, identity, purity, and potency testing.  Additionally, a tight cold chain should be present to ensure product stability. 

Browse through Grand View Research’s collection of procurement intelligence studies:

• Drug Testing Procurement Intelligence Report, 2023 – 2030 (Revenue Forecast, Supplier Ranking & Matrix, Emerging Technologies, Pricing Models, Cost Structure, Engagement & Operating Model, Competitive Landscape)

• Medical Coveralls Procurement Intelligence Report, 2023 – 2030 (Revenue Forecast, Supplier Ranking & Matrix, Emerging Technologies, Pricing Models, Cost Structure, Engagement & Operating Model, Competitive Landscape)

Vaccines Procurement Intelligence Report Scope

• Vaccines Category Growth Rate: CAGR of 4.7% from 2023 to 2030

• Pricing Growth Outlook: 6% – 10% (Annually)

• Pricing Models: Cost plus model, competitive pricing

• Supplier Selection Scope: Cost and pricing, past engagements, productivity, geographical presence

• Supplier Selection Criteria: Type of diseases covered (hepatitis, dengue, covid, etc), certifications, production capacity, operational and functional capabilities, the technology used, and others

• Report Coverage: Revenue forecast, supplier ranking, supplier positioning matrix, emerging technology, pricing models, cost structure, competitive landscape, growth factors, trends, engagement, and operating model

Key Companies Profiled

• GlaxoSmithKline plc

• Pfizer Inc.

• Sanofi S.A.

• Merck & Co., Inc.

• AstraZeneca plc

• Serum Institute of India Pvt. Ltd

• Moderna, Inc.

• BioNTech SE

• Johnson & Johnson

• Emergent BioSolutions Inc.

• Sinovac Biotech Ltd.

• Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.,Ltd.