The possibility of high impact provides a less clear guideline for the chemical market

The second set of forecasts, high-impact expectations, shows a fairly high expected probability (57-72%). However, the expert group did not reach a consensus on most projects because the IQR was between 20 and 35. Projection 1 (uncertainty) in the projection of this cluster, means that the IQR is the lowest in the entire sample, only 10. Most forecasts belong to this group: 3 (new value chain), 5 (fundamental innovation), 6 (oil dependence), 8 (image value), 11 (qualified personnel), 13 (transformation of raw material mix), and 14 ( Bio-based products).

Medium expected probability (42-52%), fairly high IQR (18-40) and predictions of high impact on the industry (3.6-3.9) once it occurs are summarized as high impact probability. Predictions 4 (industry attractiveness), 9 (use of synthetic materials), and 10 (recycled materials) belong to this group. In addition, Prediction 12 (World Hunger) can be classified as a medium-impact probability because its expected probability is low (39%) and its impact on the industry is also low (3.4). Finally, Prediction 7 (transfer of European production to other regions) has the lowest expected probability (27%) in the Delphi survey, but the highest impact (4.0), which classifies it as a high impact surprise.

All prediction results show that in the Delphi round, the standard deviation (SD) has decreased. This indicates a process of convergence, that is, an increase in consensus among groups. Interestingly, prediction 6 (oil dependence) shows an increase in SD, which indicates an increase in the degree of divergence. This result marks that it is special and critical for further analysis, which happened in the scene axis exercise.

All Delphi projections have been unanimously agreed by experts. Our cluster analysis revealed the structure and similarity of Delphi data. We include the average of EP and impact (I) for each Delphi projection. Previous studies have found that this clustering is particularly conducive to deriving appropriate actions and strategies. Diamonds represent the consensus predictions of the group, while triangles represent disagreements.

In general, we can identify five meaningful clusters of occurrence probability and impact: "high impact prospect", "high impact expectation", "high impact probability", "medium impact probability" and "high impact" Accident". For each cluster, the strategic impact on market participants is different. The prospect of high impact suggests that companies and government agencies need to prepare for stricter regulations and sustainability as key value drivers. These problems have been well reflected in the literature. Most studies and publications indicate that this kind of future is very likely, which means that every market participant needs to prepare for these developments. Failure to prepare is a rather risky strategy that may result in the loss of "operating licensors." The same is true for high impact expectations. However, the players here should be more selective based on their market positioning. For example, radical innovations in the industry, changes in raw material mixes, and bio-based products are likely not to affect all market participants in the same way. The possibility of high impact provides a less clear guideline for the chemical market.(click here chemical) Their expected probability is too low, so there is no need to prepare for these situations. Nevertheless, companies should focus on monitoring the market, focusing on the overall attractiveness of the industry, as well as talent, and the use of recycled and synthetic materials. For the chemical industry, Vecchiato puts forward a more general view that a very complex business environment is interrelated with many driving factors. Therefore, our research results are consistent with the literature, but provide more specific insights into the relevance and uncertainty of future development drivers.