the slowdown in the recovery of the manufacturing industry has restrained domestic chemical demand

For the US chemical industry, the slowdown in the recovery of the manufacturing industry has restrained domestic chemical demand(there are a lot of chemical news), while the recession in Europe and weakness in other regions have hindered export sales, and generally favorable oil and gas price ratios will help export sales. In 2015, ACC expects that as global manufacturing activities improve, chemical trade will continue to grow at a moderate rate. The trade deficit will still be concentrated in pharmaceuticals and agrochemicals, but it will be partially offset by large (and growing) surpluses in basic chemicals and specialty chemicals.

Basic chemicals (inorganic chemicals, petrochemical products, plastic resins, synthetic rubber, and man-made fibers) are most affected by the economic recession in Japan, Brazil and other countries, as well as economic slowdowns in other countries, despite the demand from important customer markets such as light vehicles and housing. Improved. Downstream customers are still cautious about increasing inventory, but the final improvement in demand may require replenishment of inventory.

In 2012, U.S. chemical production increased by only 0.1%, and in 2013 and 2014 increased by 1.3% and 2.0%, respectively. It is generally believed that production will increase by 3.7% in 2015 and will continue to grow in the coming years. With the recovery of the export market and the further improvement of the domestic end-use market, inorganic and organic chemicals, plastic resins and synthetic rubber are expected to achieve strong growth. Strong demand in the end-use markets (especially the light vehicle and housing markets) will drive the production of specialty chemicals. The strong growth of consumer products in 2014 will slow down in 2015 and 2016. Demand for agrochemicals (and supply from the United States) will recover. In the last five years of this decade, the average annual growth rate of the US chemical industry is expected to exceed 4%, exceeding the growth rate of the overall US economy. With the help of an aging population, pharmaceuticals will eventually become a growth area by the end of the decade.

Although it is expected that the annual growth rate in most areas in the next few years seems to be strong, it must be considered in the context of an abnormally sharp decline in 2008 and continuing into 2009.

Looking ahead, the expected moderate production growth and stable production capacity of the chemical industry indicate that the operating rate will increase in 2015. With the increase in production, the capacity utilization rate may further increase in 2016 or even longer.

Influence of gas

Obtaining a large amount of new natural gas supply has created a huge competitive advantage for the US chemical industry, especially petrochemical manufacturers. Driven by the substantial expansion of existing petrochemical production capacity, investment has increased rapidly. As a result, capital expenditures soared by 11.8% in 2014 to US$33.3 billion. Although slow global economic growth, uncertainty and US tax policies hinder business investment, the strong growth in capital expenditures in the US chemical industry is expected to continue. By 2017, the average annual growth of capital expenditure should exceed 9%, after which growth will slow down slightly. The company will continue to expand, and investments to improve operational efficiency will also play a role. By 2019, the U.S. chemical industry’s capital expenditures will reach 48.6 billion U.S. dollars, more than double the level of expenditures at the beginning of this long-term cycle in 2009.

High profit margins, low capital costs and opportunities provided by shale gas will help stimulate a substantial increase in investment in new plants and equipment. The status of the United States as an investment location is being actively reassessed, and petrochemical producers have announced a substantial expansion of US production capacity, reversing the 10-year downward trend. It is estimated that the gain in basic olefin capacity is between 35% and 40%. In fact, as of early December, more than 215 new chemical production projects (with a total value of more than 135 billion US dollars) have been announced, and the motivation for continued capital investment has been put in place.

Access to an adequate and reasonably priced supply of natural gas has enabled the United States to occupy an increasing share of global chemical investment. As the United States becomes an investment destination, this trend will continue.