Lee Jung-hoo 26, San Francisco Giants did not win a single vote in the 2024 Rookie of the Year vote among officials of 30 Major League teams. Despite signing a high-priced contract that would shake up the Major League Stove League this winter, experts' eyes were on Yoshinobu Yamamoto 26, Los Angeles Dodgers.
Major League Baseball's website MLB announced on the 8th that it expected the Rookie of the Year awards in 2024, based on the MLB Pipeline survey. The survey was conducted on the heads of 30 major league teams, scouts, and power analysts, and the National League and American League Rookie of the Year awards were expected by combining their opinions.
In the National League, Yamamoto overwhelmingly ranked first with 51 percent of the vote. He far surpassed second-ranked Milwaukee Brewers Jackson Churio 17 percent of the vote and third-ranked Cincinnati Reds Noelvi Marte 9 percent. Except for Yamamoto, several prospects tended to share votes, and Lee Jung-hoo, who was the second highest paid candidate after Yamamoto, failed to win a single vote. 메이저 토토사이트
Yamamoto's vote is probably a natural outcome. Yamamoto shook the landscape by dominating as a pitcher FA this winter, and successfully signed a 12-year contract worth a total of 325 million U.S. dollars with the Dodgers. Rich teams such as the New York Yankees and the New York Mets, which desperately need reinforcements for starters, jumped into the team, and the price soared, rewriting both the highest amount and longest history of a pitcher FA. Some pointed out that the price went up too much due to overheated competition, but the majority said that the player's skill was sufficiently proven.
Yamamoto is one of the best ace pitchers in the Japanese professional baseball NPB at a young age of 25. In 172 NPB games, he pitched 70-29 with 897 innings, 922 strikeouts and a 1.82 ERA. He was already the pinnacle in Japan as he won the Sawamura Award for the third consecutive year as a pitcher with four gold medals. Some analysts say that the team was overheated as rich teams such as the New York Yankees and the New York Mets joined the race to recruit Yamamoto, but he certainly has skills that he can be one of the top three starting pitchers in the Major League. This is why the Dodgers treated Yamamoto the best as a pitcher FA.
Now, it is important to display the skills that dominated Japan in the Major League. Major officials of the 30 big league teams expect Yamamoto to quickly adapt to the big league and win the Rookie of the Year award.
Regarding the results of the vote, MLB said, “The survey began before Yamamoto agreed to a contract with the Dodgers. Officials had different answers, so some responded before and after the contract was announced. We gave those who voted before the announcement of Yamamoto's contract a chance to change their votes, and many exercised their rights.” The $325 million ransom might have been affected, but wearing the Dodgers' uniform, the favorite to win the World Series, was a bigger factor. With the destination set, it would have been possible to predict next season's performance more accurately.
MLB emphasized, “Yamamoto is not eligible for the Rookie of the Year award, but he is eligible for the Rookie of the Year award like Sasaki Kazu in 2000 and Ichiro Suzuki in 2001. It is not a big deal to think that Yamamoto has a chance to win the National League Rookie of the Year award in 2024, given that he can win a successful career in Japan and a spot in the starting rotation of a leading playoff team.”
“Yamamoto took away votes from other candidates who received multiple votes. Churio's votes, which came in second, were mostly changed to those of Yamamoto. Churio also became an issue as he signed an eight-year, 82 million-dollar contract with Milwaukee before he played a game in the big league. Some officials even changed their votes from a right-handed pitcher to another right-handed pitcher. Prior to the Yamamoto deal, Paul Skins Pittsburgh, the No. 1 overall draft pick last year, received more support,” he added.
In the National League Rookie of the Year survey, 10 prospects, including Yamamoto, shared their votes, but there was no Lee Jung-hoo. In San Francisco, only left-hander Kyle Harrison received votes, but it was classified as “other” because there were not many votes.
Just like Yamamoto, Lee Jung-hoo is also a player who is qualified to win the Rookie of the Year award and is capable of doing so. Lee Jung-hoo surprised the U.S. media by signing a six-year, $113 million contract with the San Francisco Giants in December last year. This was the record breaking the record set by Japanese outfielder Masataka Yoshida of the Boston Red Sox. Prior to last season, Yoshida challenged the Major League through a posting system and signed a five-year, 90 million-dollar contract with the Boston Red Sox. It is regrettable for Lee Jung-hoo that he did not get even a single vote even though he came to the U.S. with the highest treatment for Asian batters.
Since the news of San Francisco's contract with Lee Jung-hoo was heard, the U.S. media has consistently insisted on “overpay.” San Francisco said it made a panic buy when it fell to the Dodgers in the game to recruit Shohei Ohtani, the biggest FA player this winter. Most of the analysts said that Scott Boras, Lee Jung-hoo's agent, took advantage of the anxiety that has accumulated since San Francisco failed to recruit large-scale FA besides Ohtani.
While playing for seven seasons in the KBO League from 2017 to this year, Lee posted a batting average of 0.340 1,181 hits in 3,476 times at bat in total. He ranks first in the history of Korean hitters. He also posted a batting average of 0.324 179 hits in 552 times at bat in 2017 when he was a 19-year-old rookie. Although Korea is a batting and pitching league, he is a batter with a batting average of less than .300 in any season. As a center fielder, Lee also has strong defense in the outfield. Although he usually has difficulties adapting himself to the KBO after moving to the Major League, Lee had a strong belief that he would be able to shorten the adjustment period.
The U.S. baseball statistics site “FanGrapes” predicted that Lee Jung-hoo will continue a fairly successful career in the big leagues. Lee Jung-hoo's expected performance was released using the ZiPS SZymborski Projection System, baseball prediction system devised by Dan Zimbowski, which is the highest in both 2024 and 2025, and then it is expected to decline to 0.287 in 2026, 0.281 in 2027, 0.282 in 2028, and 0.281 in 2029. Every year, the number of home runs is 8 to 9, and the number of RBIs is 60.
Those familiar with Lee Jung-hoo's career seem to have been undervalued simply by looking at the expected ZiPS figures, but a batting average of 0.288 is the highest in the Major League. Based on last season's performance, 0.288 ranks 14th overall in the big league. Last year, there were only nine hitters who were .300 in the big league. A .300 hitter is much more precious than Korea. It is expected that Lee Jung-hoo will enter his first season by ranking in the top 15 in the big league.
FanGraphs also pointed out that San Francisco did not overpay Lee Jung-hoo. FanGraphs said, “As a player who signed a huge contract, Lee Jung-hoo was quite strong in both scouting and data-based forecasting. The figure for ZiPS exceeds the average among key center field players. At this level, ZiPS would recommend a six-year, $132 million contract,” adding that it was appropriate.
“Lee Jung-hoo included a clause that allows him to apply for an opt-out four years later when he is 29 years old in a six-year contract. If he does well enough to judge that he can earn more than $19 million in annual salary for the last two seasons of his contract, he can apply for an opt-out and earn more money. ZiPS added that the $113 million contract includes an opt-out application clause four years later and evaluates it as the same as a six-year $134 million contract.”
Nevertheless, no one in the 30 clubs predicted that Lee Jung-hoo would have a brighter season than Yamamoto and other prospects. I wonder if Lee Jung-hoo will be able to show a play that has grown to the point where he overturned their expectations and competed for the Rookie of the Year title at the end of this season.
Meanwhile, in the American League Rookie of the Year voting, Texas Rangers Evan Carter topped the list with 36% of the vote, followed by Baltimore Orioles Jackson Holiday with 30% of the vote.
